Two concepts in the political sphere need to disappear from our lexicon. These are terms we have used extensively in recent years, such as “moderate Sunni states” and “normalization with Saudi Arabia.” Regarding the first: whereas in the past we referred to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or even Oman as moderate Sunni states, today it can be stated with certainty that these countries are no longer moderate at all. Qatar has for years supported, hosted, and financed terrorism. Saudi Arabia today supports the Iranian regime and the Muslim Brotherhood, which are taking over Yemen. Oman has always supported and assisted the Houthis in smuggling weapons from Iran into Yemen. Today, the six Gulf states must be viewed differently. The division should be: a state that has signed the Abraham Accords, or a state that has not signed the Abraham Accords.
As for normalization with Saudi Arabia, that belongs to the past. Even before October 7, there were reports and even contacts regarding normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Today, we are light-years away from that. Over the past two years, the Saudis have done everything to harm Israel and the Jewish people. They have called on and mobilized Western countries to recognize a Palestinian state; they have condemned Israel hundreds of times during the “Swords of Iron” war; they have called on Western countries to impose an arms embargo on Israel; they continue to curse and incite against Israel and the Jews in their weekly sermons in Mecca, the holiest place for Muslims, in front of hundreds of millions of believers. However, what has stood out most in recent weeks is their opposition to Israeli recognition of Somaliland and their fierce opposition to the overthrow of the Iranian regime. In light of all this, normalization with Saudi Arabia is light-years—and generations—away. We have not even mentioned their basic condition: Israeli agreement to the establishment of a Palestinian state in exchange for full diplomatic relations with Israel.
Full disclosure: I was among the first Israelis to call for peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In fact, more than ten years ago I published an article in The Jerusalem Post calling on the Israeli government to establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.
However, today I can say with certainty that the Saudis are still not ready for peace with the Jews or with the State of Israel. I say this with great pain, because I truly would like the Saudis to join the Abraham Accords, as the Prime Minister noted yesterday.
Be that as it may, these days the Saudis are busy saving the regime in Iran. As is well known, over the past twenty years the Iranians have not hesitated to use any means to harm Arab states in general and the Gulf states in particular. Iranian efforts and attempts to undermine the stability of Arab countries have not ceased for a moment in recent years—whether in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain, or Yemen. More than one million Sunni Muslims have been killed as a result of Iranian intervention in the affairs of Arab states. The Arabs have not forgotten who stood at the head of the Quds Force—Qassem Soleimani—who was responsible for the deaths of many. So why would Sunni Saudis save the Shiite regime despite all this?
The answer is unequivocal and leaves no room for doubt. The Saudis do not want a regional war that would harm them and their economy. They want stability for their oil. Although they loathe the Iranian regime, they are willing to make concessions to it on the condition that Israel does not draw closer to them—neither via the Red Sea through Somaliland nor via Iran. Yes, you heard correctly.
The recent statement by Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah of Iran, a fervent supporter of Israel who has more than once declared that the Iranian people are not enemies of the people of Israel and that he would support normalization once the regime in Iran falls—in other words, a new Iran would be an ally of Israel. The Shiites would establish a peace alliance with the Jews against Sunni terrorism. Iran and Israel are two powers that, if they cooperate, could control the entire region and its natural resources—especially after the ouster of Venezuela’s President Maduro. Such a scenario was not taken into account even in the Saudis’ and Mohammed bin Salman’s worst nightmares, yet today it seems logical and even feasible.
Israel erred when it courted Saudi Arabia, thinking this would help bring about peace with us—but the opposite occurred. Israeli courtship pushed peace with Saudi Arabia further away. Today we need to distance ourselves from the Saudis, who support terrorism in Yemen and support a murderous regime in Tehran, and establish a peace alliance with a new Iran. In conclusion, normalization with a new Iran has become closer than normalization with the Saudis.
Dr. Eddie Cohen
Orientalist and Research Fellow at the Israel Center for Grand Strategy (ICGS)
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