In the months preceding “Lion’s Roar,” Military Intelligence Directorate, with all its units, conducted a massive concentrated effort, implementing lessons learned from the past, and specifically from the previous campaign against Iran.
The operation was carried out according to a structured and pre-prepared plan, which was built by thousands of AMAN (Military Intelligence Directorate) personnel and various IDF units, both regular and reserve, from the perspective that the Revolutionary Guards are not an enemy to be underestimated in their capabilities.
One of the interesting behind-the-scenes details, reflecting the Directorate’s activity, relates to the attack targets: almost all of them are considered new and were targeted after ‘With the Lion’. This is a data point of significant magnitude.
During the previous operation against Iran, the IDF neutralized the immediate nuclear breakout capability and also degraded the missile threat to a level that would not prevent future operations in Iran or the region. Without the operation, the regime would now have over a thousand additional missiles and at an increasing production rate.
While last June, surgical work was done against a ticking bomb and an existential threat, the current operation created an opportunity for “deep plowing” – one that could, beyond removing the existential Iranian threat, remove the strategic threat to the State of Israel in the foreseeable future.
And what about the opening strike? In the previous operation, the Iranian system failed in its advance warning of the Israeli use of force. Since then, the regime has been engaged in readiness measures and preparations for another Israeli surprise – measures that almost led the regime to attack several times, and the IDF to carry out preemptive strikes several times accordingly. Despite this, the IDF succeeded in creating surprise in the opening strike and caused significant damage to the regime and its capabilities.
Following close intelligence monitoring of the Supreme National Security Council and other targets, which allowed for finding a window where a high concentration of senior officials were present in the compounds simultaneously, the strike was executed. During it, many senior officials in the Iranian government and its various security systems were eliminated, which was made possible by a golden opportunity and the exploitation of a unique operational window.
The opportunity arose due to a complex internal situation and a deteriorating internal crisis in Iran, the identification of strategic and operational distress, and alongside a historic strategic cooperation with American partners.
The painstaking intelligence work, which requires fusion and integration of various information sources, led to damage to most of the missile launchers, rendering approximately 70% of the launchers unusable, and damage to military production industries along with the destruction of weapons production capabilities.
Alongside these, clear indications of damage on the Iranian side can be identified – thousands of killed and tens of thousands of wounded among the regime’s forces, alongside a decline in morale and even phenomena of unwillingness to act, desertions, and refusals of orders. As part of the campaign, the IDF is acting to systematically damage the Quds Force, both in Iran and in other arenas.
Of course, intelligence gathering for warning purposes and for the thwarting of terrorist plots continues at all times – with a focus on the two main arenas, Iran and Lebanon, with a watchful eye on the entire Middle East.
Among other things, AMAN identified and assessed that Hezbollah would join the campaign. For this purpose, the IDF arrived prepared and informed decision-makers that there was a high probability that the terrorist organization would not stand by. As a result, extensive preparatory efforts were made in the army and operational plans were adapted in advance to enable the operation.
Looking ahead to the future of the campaign, there is a central emphasis on deepening the achievement in the Iranian arena, by degrading capabilities in the missile and production fields through thorough and systematic crushing of the Iranian defense industry and launchers.
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